On 29 March, a poll put Marine Le Pen as the clear front-runner in France’s next presidential election. The projected 37 per cent first-round support for the hard-right politician would be the highest for any candidate in half a century. But just days later, on 31 March, a Paris court ruled that she won’t be able to stand for election at all, after she was found guilty of embezzlement.
Le Pen had declared, ahead of the ruling, that such a ban would mean “condemning me to political death”. But it’s hardly clear that this will end Le Pen’s career, still less kill off her party, the National Rally (RN). Instead, the ban has fired the starting gun on a two-year campaign for the 2027 presidential election, in which Le Pen’s name will be on everyone’s minds, if not on the ballot paper.
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